Well well well, we’ve won once again
Let’s review the year. How are the humans going? The world is getting richer: poverty drops to single digits (9.8%) down to 700 million, even with a growing population. Food Glut: record food harvests & low prices = feeding future billions (one?) on less land with less fertilizers. Lifespans worldwide are up. The Great Enrichment (unplanned prosperity) continues apace, says Deirdre McCloskey, by individual humans specializing, innovating & freely networking. Great!
How about the cuddly little animals? The walrus seem to be happy : “Pacific Walrus populations “increased from 50,000 to 100,000 animals in the late 1950s to more than 250,000 animals by 1985,” and they are believed to have now reached their maximum carrying capacity. Svalbard polar bears are “fat as pigs” & up 42%, even with their ice poor Barents Sea. Bees are still thriving and nature rebounding. Peak cropland, peak farming, forest transition and nature rebound are spreading across the globe.
And the pretty plants? The Sahel desert is greening again, from more CO2, leading to increased plant water use efficiency. Earth’s green biomass is rising and increasing crop yields by 10-15%.
And how is Earth’s biosphere going (Gaia to Greens)? The 18 year 9 month global temp pause (cooling?) continues, even with increasing CO2. Arctic ice is thickening and the deep oceans are still cold & alkaline. The new Eco-Modernist Manifesto even welcomes humans back to Earth: “human prosperity and an ecologically vibrant planet are not only possible, but also inseparable” That’s an improvement!
Energy prices drop worldwide (good for poor people) as the fracking (shale-gas/oil) revolution goes global & produces an oil glut. China races ahead with 100 advanced nuclear reactors to 2025, 400 to 2050, at 1/3 cost & in 1/2 time as in the West.
Democracy– up; child safety – superb; war deaths-flatlined; homicides- drop. That’s good!
This calls for a song. A hug-your-hominans song! Still the One
We’ve been together since way back when. Sometimes I never want to see you again.
I want you to know, after all these years, you’re still the one I want whisperin in my ear.
You’re still the one — who can scratch my itch, still the one — and I wouldn’t switch.
We’re still having fun, and you’re still the one.
This optimistic evidence is now getting out to humans: Hans Rosling – Don’t trust The Media to understand the world, check facts & arguments yourself. Matt Ridley & Steven Pinker just won the Munk Debates arguing that humankind’s best days lie ahead. And 5 data scientists become world famous for showing that facts can win over fear.
We caring humans, are still too often tricked into destructive baseless beliefs by fear & righteous emotions from deep down in our ancient lion-in-the-grass African savannah brains, … as our world bounds into a fantastic 21stC future. But even this problem is being solved, with Homo sapiens (& school children ) more often using critical thinking to check evidence & arguments with the scientific method and logical reasoning.
These failures are our road to success as we humans move into
Green green megacities, leaving wilderness blooming, and achieve mighty things, in reaching the stars.
Fantastic Future Trend Watching Brady
Posted in Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Education, Energy, Greens, Health, Nuclear Power, Oceans, Optimism, Technology
Steven Pinker (p6): Today’s writers are infused with the spirit of scientific skepticism and the ethos of questioning authority. They rightly expect reasons for any advice foistered upon them. WOW! Mars, our next home. Below: Mars – sol 1197: (left) Gale meteorite crater wall; (centre) Namib sand dune slipface; (right) Mt Sharp central crater peak where the Curiosity Rover (stretched at bottom) is going in New Year 2016. Or, maybe safer not to wander back to planet “wildernesses”. Colonies around Mars’ moons Phobos & Deimos?
Steven Pinker (p29): Classic Style’s motive is disinterested truth. The writer, he just needs to present it, the reader is competent and can recogognize the truth when she sees it, as long as she is given an unobstructed view. Svalbard polar bears are “fat as pigs” & up 42%, even with their ice poor Barents Sea. Maybe dining on walrus? Walrus are booming too, back to maximum 1890s levels. However, the US Sea & Sky dept (NOAA) says too little sea ice is causing decreases in polar bears and walrus. Hmm …
Here we have contradictory Global Warming worriers saying: Bacon is better than lettuce & lettuce is better than bacon, as the world cools? And a massive cloud global cooling process was discovered before the Paris Climate Deal, any more unknowns? Then the overjoyed shouted: Paris Climate Success! But with no goals, controls nor money & all can opt out in 4 yrs before 2020 start. Then the name–calling began. Any scientific style here?
Are even some hard sciences needing more style? – Unscientific: Strings, Multiverse, Cosmic Inflation are not verifiable but they are worth doing anyway, say String theorists. How long to wait for an hypothesis to be tested? 1000yrs? Is String Theory, the Multiverse and the Anthropic Principle just Media popular: stopping funding for other good ideas?
University students are still righteously blocking campus free speech saying it’s offensive and sexual harrassment (WTF!) University profs lean heavily politically Left but claim no bias in their research nor teaching. University admin replace intelligence, knowledge & learning with student happiness. Online-distance courses boom. Now that makes sense.
The sense of scientific style exudes from these 2015 nano-sculptures. Here astounding science and beautiful art mix. Evidence supports emotions, feelings are based on facts and all data is laid bare for drawing conclusions. So, from the miniscule to the Martian, lets have the style to be even more human … & dare mighty things in 2016.
Scientific Style Sense Seeking Brady
Posted in Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, Education, Energy, Extinction, Greens, Health, Ice, Nuclear Power, Oceans, Optimism, Political Climate, Temperature
Ooooo, we’re getting closer. Saturn’s moon Encleadus gets deep-dived by the Cassini spacecraft, over its north and south poles (49km), looking for organics from its oceans. Humans have just completed surveying the Solar System, now the colonization stage begins. Onward to Mars! Enriching our species with knowledge, as is the human’s niche.
Enough of this exploration nonsense!What’s happening with real people in Earth’s mud? Well, the world is getting richer: poverty drops to single digits (9.8%) down to 700 million, even with a growing population. Food Glut: record food harvests & low prices = feeding future billions (one?) on less land with less fertilizers. Lifespans worldwide are up. Great!
How is the politicized science going? UNs Paris 21st “caring” climate meeting should be fun. The 18yr global temp pause(cooling?) continues, even with increasing CO2; Arctic ice is thickening and the deep oceans are still cold & alkaline. But watch the $1.5 trillion sing, like Ulysses’ sirens on the rocks. A bit of critical thinking wax might help, or maybe not
How about wayward scientists? Well, Nicole Janz is whipping them into shape: Hiding data = breaking professional standards = scientific misconduct. And no-raw-data-required Nature Journal is reluctantly joining in: Humans are remarkably good at self-deception. But growing concern about reproducibility is driving many researchers to seek ways to fight their own worst instincts. As Feynman says: you [scientists] are the easiest to fool.
The Great Enrichment (unplanned prosperity) continues apace, says Deirdre McCloskey, by individual humans specializing, innovating & freely networking, mostly despite the policies of Big Gov, Big Enviro, Big Business etc. So, its time to relax on these calm autumn days and marvel at our 10 000 BC humans spreading out over the mighty Eurasian continent, as we are now doing out into interplanetary space.
Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Brain, Climate, Health, Optimism, Political Climate, Recycling, Technology
Magnificent Martian mountianscapes beckon (10 Sept 2015) with briny water in wet sand flowing downhill in warm near zero sunshine. However hype & fear overtook science as NASA exaggerates to get money for its future Phobos outpost and the Planetary Protection Office bans landings in life-likely spots from “filthy humans”: eco-doomers already on Mars? No mid-ocean alkaline hydrothermal vents there so, evidence-based science please!
Wo! Pluto – sunset on 3.5km ice mountains by a frozen nitrogen sea in an orange methane misty sky. Back on Earth, we’re still battling the twin demons of science: fear & greed, with evidence & reason. First up: The Sahel desert is greening again, from more CO2, leading to increased plant water use efficiency. Also, duelling population projections – but they don’t mention their failed predictions & future fertility rebound evidence. Organic foods take another scientific beating – more about money than facts. Herded humans, again? And, an old favourite: logic & evidence contradictions in the “hottest year ever” meme. Oh well.
Getting more personal : Hans Rosling – Don’t trust The Media to understand the world, check facts & arguments yourself. University trigger-warnings protect students offended by critical thinking. However academic resistance is beginning. Good & about time!
So lets try evolving away from being herded humans. If our new ancestor Homo naledi could care for their dead 2.5 million years ago then lets care even more for our living with skepticism, optimism and calcuated daring as we expand across the extensive reaches of space and speed up the evolution of innovations (new good ideas) in our minds.
EU and US race to Jupiter’s moons to be 1st to find extraterrestrial life out in the Universe. Who wants to finish 2nd? Doing what humans do best, gathering knowledge, so we all win. Mars may have fossils but live life is best. From mid-Atlantic alkaline hydrothermal vents to ice protected Jovian oceans? As The Martian says: Lets science the sh*t out of this!
However, back here on Earth, some mad pursuit of emotion over reason continues: “Environmental threats have a habit of turning out less bad than feared … the remedies sometimes prove worse than the disease … the environmental movement has repeatedly denied people access to safer technologies and forced them to rely on dirtier, riskier or more harmful ones. It is adept at exploiting people’s suspicion of anything new. Indoor air pollution (cooking over wood fires indoors) is the world’s biggest cause of environmental death. It kills an estimated four million people every year. To argue that the increasingly small risk of dangerous climate change many decades hence is something they should be more worried about is positively obscene.” And Psychology is 60% wrong. Oh well.
Bioethics is seduced by fear too: “Biomedical research, then, promises vast increases in life, health, and flourishing. Just imagine how much happier you would be if a prematurely deceased loved one were alive, or a debilitated one were vigorous — and multiply that good by several billion, in perpetuity. Given this potential bonanza, the primary moral goal for today’s bioethics can be summarized in a single sentence. Get out of the way.”
However, the walrus seem to be happy : “Pacific Walrus populations “increased from 50,000 to 100,000 animals in the late 1950s to more than 250,000 animals by 1985,” and they are believed to have now reached their maximum carrying capacity. Alarmists suggest the increasing use of land haul-outs is a sign of disaster, caused by the loss of sea ice. However all the evidence argues that as walrus populations increase, so does the use of land haul-outs. It is a sign of the walrus’ successful recovery. A beach packed with walruses is evidence of better conservation, not global warming doom.” Even the scare of irradiated food is now having the light of reason shone on it. Yum, goodbye bacteria poisoning.
So, lets madly pursue reason, not be madly overcome by emotion: “The state of our science is strong, but it’s plagued by a universal problem: Science is hard — really f**king hard. If we’re going to rely on science as a means for reaching the truth — and it’s still the best tool we have — it’s important that we understand and respect just how difficult it is to get a rigorous result. Science is not a magic wand that turns everything it touches to truth. Instead, “science operates as a procedure of uncertainty reduction. The goal is to get less wrong over time.” The scientific method is the most rigorous path to knowledge, but it’s also messy and tough. Science deserves respect exactly because it is difficult.” So lets pursue knowledge that is hard, so all humans can enjoy the wonders of life on Earth …. and also those off it.
Reason Pursuing Brady