Well well well, we’ve won once again
“World cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2015 would surge to 627.5 million tonnes, up 8.3 % from an already large volume at the start of the season and its highest level in 15 years.” and “Compared with any time in the past half century, the world as a whole is today wealthier, healthier, happier, cleverer, cleaner, kinder, freer, safer, more peaceful and more equal.”
This calls for a song. A hug-your-hominans song! Still the One
We’ve been together since way back when, Sometimes I never want to see you again, I want you to know, after all these years, you’re still the one I want whisperin in my ear, You’re still the one — who can scratch my itch, Still the one — and I wouldn’t switch,
We’re still having fun, and you’re still the one.
But hey, lets not let boring data replace scary stories. “Ocean Deaths Now!” scientivists’ hearts are jump-started back to the scientific method: “biases; no evidence; not skeptical”. Even no-raw-data-required Nature science journal distances itself from ocean alarmists’ “groupthink”. However our PC media are still not with Charlie here.
“2014: Warmest Ever!” becomes: only 38% chance, after 1997 & 2005, not statistically significant, continuing cooling trend. Still warmer than the 1850s Little Ice Age. Great! These sorts of Pathological Politicized Science and its Stealth Advocates are now being reined in with Honest Broker restraints in the EU & US.
So, let’s end the old and begin 2015 with this amazing image of stars like sand grains in our next door Andromeda Galaxy, on its way to meet us in 4 billion years. However, what with us making new worlds of Ceres (between Mars & Jupiter) and Pluto in 2015, & Kepler data narrowing in on Earth 2.0s, then maybe, with even more scientific optimism,
… we’ll visit these wonderful Andromeda worlds years sooner than that.
Aiming High Hominan Brady
Great thinking & Groupthink. Shooting to the stars & stuck-in-the-mud. Such are we humans. Well, we’re working at it. On 5 Dec NASAs new Orion spacecraft completed its successful flight test, ready for asteroid mining. And building deep space habitats?
Meanwhile, back in the mud, the CO2 OCO2 satellite, even with 1/8 year data & 15ppmv range, drives another stake into Global Warming, with CO2 red spots in Greenland etc. More garlic arriving in 2015? Greenpeace: Planet Saviour™, just redrew Peru’s most pristine 2000yr old Nazca Line, but .. can it recant? And the Swedish Postcode Lottery is one of their biggest donors. Oh well.
British Medical Journal articles support again investigator Nina Teicholz’s claim of the evidence poor base of Govts’ food plates. “Many findings are entirely implausible … many of which present grossly implausible observational claims. Poor biomedical science … the great unreliability of most studies linking nutrition to disease and mortality, ..whether it’s total fat, saturated fat, trans fats, sugar, or salt.” So much human folly.
Ocean “acidification”: Dr Feely’s (Obama & UN advisor) data shows post-1988 cherry picked computer modelled trend (pink line), leaving out 80 years of pH values (2.5 million points) showing natural varying alkaline oceans (grey & blue lines). Not good. On an up note, the poison loving sea slug joins the list of 221 new 2014 animal and plants species. None extinct (nor likely) due to our cooling warming world. That’s good!
Meanwhile, saner voices (on video games & violence) were saying: “This research may help society focus on issues that really matter and avoid devoting unnecessary resources to the pursuit of moral agendas with little practical value.” Good thinking to be more widely applied to other muddy Groupthink. And, more confidence for humans from our space faring enthusiasts: “The … reason for spreading into deep space … is … due to humanity’s desire for knowledge or adventure … humans both in the past and present are … bright enough to solve their own problems and build wondrous devices in the process … the intelligence and ingenuity of our ancestors and our present selves, who have done and learned some amazing things without any external assistance and beaten some very strong odds against us and our societies.”
Finally, fascinating christmas caring Interstellar thinking, about 5D Bulk beings tesseract transporting human beings across 10 billion light years, in minutes, to be with loved ones. Is this a step towards reconciling gravity & quantum theory? Let’s use our
b ranes brains & let the evidence decide. And so look forward to more New Year’s cheer
Bulky Being Brady
Doing like we do, we are on the way up. Our International Space Station is permanently crewed (now with 2 women & 4 men). The Orion spacecraft lifts off on 4 Dec for trips to the Moon, Mars & asteroids. The Rosetta space probe orbits Comet 67P & its Philae lander just made a bumpy touchdown. Planets beckon and The Galaxy awaits.
Down on Earth, chocolate is plentiful, and that is always good. World Poor are getting richer and are now able to savour the dark brown delights of cacao. As usual the alarmists spin this good news as the coming Chocolypse (to support UN-Obama climate action?). Climate continues cooling, for 20 years now (20 to go?) Beaufort polar bears are booming & the Black Footed Ferret is back from being extinct for 20 years. Is there a pattern here? “Group failures often have disastrous consequences—not merely for businesses, nonprofits, and governments, but for all those affected by them.” Enviros, Climatists, Energy Doomers & Medical Malpracticers … can they be better?
Yes indeed! Making Dumb Groups Smarter authors Sunstein & Hastie moan how groups: amplify errors; follow the statements & actions of those who spoke/acted first; take up extreme positions; don’t take into account critical information that only one or a few people have. What to do? : Silence the loud leader; “Prime” critical thinking tasks; reward group success not individuals; appoint devil’s advocates & “red teams” to find mistakes and exploit vunerabilities in the group’s thinking. Now, that should be easy.
Ambition (ESAs Rosetta space probe PR video) explains the human quest for ever more knowledge and the realizing of possibilities “We fall, we pick ouselves up again and we adapt”. So, lets get up & do it, again.
Eye opsins and their photoreceptors, the seeing sites in animals, are being tweeked for more colour vision. Is a colour blindness cure for humans next? Can we also enrich human vision with gene therapy of a fourth cone opsin in the violet giving us 100x more colours? “What beauty might we experience in art …?”
Other pulse-of-the-world indicators continuously get better too. “The number of natural disasters in the past year was the lowest for ten years, not more.” The International Red Cross reports: “Accordingly, last year 337 natural disasters were recorded, almost half of the peak level 2005. The death toll stood at 22,452, well below the average for the decade of 97,954 victims.” Modern technology rocks!
And …”Based on the latest forecasts for production and utilization, world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2015 would surge to 627.5 million tonnes, up 8.3 % from an already large volume at the start of the season and its highest level in 15 years.”
Even biomedical research is waking up from its 80% wrong & 85% $s wasted nightmare.
However, our facts & costs-benefits challenged Apocalyptic humans seemingly still can’t see the science. Species extinction alarmists are getting worried they are being found out. “There have certainly been some enormous exaggerations,” said Richard Ladle, a Brazil-based conservation scientist who studies extinction. There’s at least one problem with these predictions: Where are the bodies? Actual documented extinctions are vanishingly rare.” Their “damn the data, we have an agenda” thinking, makes an increasingly skeptical public dump them in with other enviro-fanatics. Also, another inconvenience: Global Warming’s presumed man-made “missing heat” is still … missing. The now 18+ year stop (or “pause”/”haitus”, but never: drop/cooling) in world temperatures was expected to be hiding heat in the deep oceans, but the data say no (black dots=below 2km). Are our misty eyed alarmists falling in“to dungeons deep and caverns old“?
Prof Brown at Duke Uni sums it up best – “Science isn’t a search for Truth. It is a search for that which it is best to believe, given the evidence, so far.” And as Pascal Bruckner says: “We need trailblazers and stimulators, not killjoys disguised as prophets. We need new frontiers in order to cross them, not new prisons where we can stagnate… Every new invention must strike the heart of human desire, elicit astonishment, and allow people to embark upon an unprecedented voyage… We have to count on the genius of the human race, which is capable of overcoming its fears in order to improvise new solutions.” Clearly said & seen scientific sentiments indeed!
Finally, Interstellar. After the obligatory Hollywood apocalypse preaching comes a visual black hole beauty feast, informed by science’s living legend Gravitation expert Kip Thorne. And it shows! “The visualization of the black hole environment, including the accretion disks and gravitational lensing, … will be based on an accurate calculation rooted in Einstein’s general relativity…. it should be the most accurate depiction of a black hole ever.” WOW … what a view, too!
Sightseeing seeing sites Brady
Our local Universe just expanded. The Lanniakea supercluster of galaxies – 520 million light years across and our Milky Way galaxy just a blue dot, but …WOW, what a view!
Let’s get back to Earth & not forget our save-the-worlders’ own moving tipping points too. Future temps are now decreasing; Antarctic ice is again at record highs; Arctic ice is increasing & Ozone is waltzing naturally. “Half global wildlife lost” becomes: computer Living-Planet-Index modelled animals, undetected by science, guessed in possible decline. Hmm … Now, they are, how shall we say, … inconvenient truths
Seems maybe they need to value knowledge more. Says Steven Pinker eloquently – “they should appreciate that objective knowledge is a precious commodity, and know how to distinguish vetted fact from superstition, rumor, and unexamined conventional wisdom. They should know how to reason logically and statistically, avoiding the fallacies and biases to which the untutored human mind is vulnerable. They should think causally rather than magically, and know what it takes to distinguish causation from correlation and coincidence. They should be acutely aware of human fallibility, most notably their own, and appreciate that people who disagree with them are not stupid or evil. Accordingly, they should appreciate the value of trying to change minds by persuasion rather than intimidation or demagoguery.”
And as Bourgeoise Dignity argues in “an enormously optimistic telling … about just how lucky we are … we are rich—really rich—compared to our ancestors of only a short time ago. What was different after 1800, and with unstoppable force after 1900, was a novel and immense and sustained, almost lunatic, regime of innovation, finally breaking the Malthusian curse“. And as Steven Johnson writes of our amazing present – “the more we build up vast repositories of scientific and technological understanding, the more we conceal them”. … your ability to tell the time today depends on somebody understanding how electrons circulate within cesium atoms; the knowledge of how to send signals to satellites; the ability to trigger steady vibrations in blocks of silicon dioxide; and much more. None of which you need to know as you glance at your watch or smartphone. Disappearing limitations. Good!
Boundary Bender Brady
Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Education, Extinction, Greens, Optimism, Temperature
Rosetta space probe now pioneer orbiting Comet 67P selects landing sites for a 11 Nov touchdown. Another small step to asteroid mining then … human space colonies?
Even down on Earth an abundance of meteoric betterments are flowing -“Compared with any time in the past half century, the world as a whole is today wealthier, healthier, happier, cleverer, cleaner, kinder, freer, safer, more peaceful and more equal.”
Not to mention, more food available – “The new harvest in 2014-15 is expected to be above average for the second year in a row and reach 303 million tonnes ” … and better fed too – “The corresponding [undernourished] world decrease … is also 17% – from 1.015 billion in 1990-2 to 842 million in 2011-2013. ” However we in the West are still following 40 year old health & nutrition mistakes. In Sweden, “100s of” 9th Grade Geography & Biology alarmist test-makers can’t even answer their own questions. Oh well.
Our present Great Enrichment came from innovation, says Deirdre McCloskey – “millions more have gas heating, cars, smallpox vaccinations, indoor plumbing, cheap travel, rights for women, lower child mortality, adequate nutrition, taller bodies, doubled life expectancy, schooling for their kids, newspapers, a vote, a shot at university and respect.” Now that’s astronomical progress!
Comet Cornucopian Brady