Best Year Ever Again, Continuing Trend

Happy Hominans,
Well well well, we’ve won once again :-)
Optimism 1 Optimism 2
Let’s review the year. How are the humans going? The world is getting richer: poverty drops to single digits (9.8%) down to 700 million, even with a growing population. Food Glut: record food harvests & low prices = feeding future billions (one?) on less land with less fertilizers. Lifespans worldwide are up. The Great Enrichment (unplanned prosperity) continues apace, says Deirdre McCloskey, by individual humans specializing, innovating & freely networking. Great!
Food Glut with record low prices on less fertilizers Extreme Poverty lowest ever - 9.8% down to 700 million peopleFAO food index dropping means cheaper food for all Food Glut 2016
How about the cuddly little animals? The walrus seem to be happy :-) : “Pacific Walrus populations “increased from 50,000 to 100,000 animals in the late 1950s to more than 250,000 animals by 1985,” and they are believed to have now reached their maximum carrying capacity. Svalbard polar bears are “fat as pigs” & up 42%, even with their ice poor Barents Sea. Bees are still thriving and nature rebounding. Peak cropland, peak farming, forest transition and nature rebound are spreading across the globe.
Walrus rebounding and back historical levels in the Pacific Polar Bears - fat as pigs Bees used for green masters perposes Nature rebounding across the globe
And the pretty plants? The Sahel desert is greening again, from more CO2, leading to increased plant water use efficiency. Earth’s green biomass is rising and increasing crop yields by 10-15%.
    Biosphere Biomass increasing Greening Earth
And how is Earth’s biosphere going (Gaia to Greens)? The 18 year 9 month global temp pause (cooling?) continues, even with increasing CO2.  Arctic ice is thickening and the deep oceans are still cold & alkaline.  The new Eco-Modernist Manifesto even welcomes humans back to Earth: “human prosperity and an ecologically vibrant planet are not only possible, but also inseparable”  That’s an improvement! ;-)
Gaia Ecomodernist Manifesto - belatedly waking up and welcoming humans Global Warning flat from 1997 to 2016
Energy prices drop worldwide (good for poor people) as the fracking (shale-gas/oil) revolution goes global & produces an oil glut. China races ahead with 100 advanced nuclear reactors to 2025, 400 to 2050, at 1/3 cost & in 1/2 time as in the West.
Oil Glut as Fracking Revolution takes over Chinese Future Nuclear Map
Democracy– up; child safety – superb; war deaths-flatlined; homicides- drop. That’s good!
Democracy beats Autocracy in todays world Children become safer and safer War deaths decrease and stay down worldwide Homicides decrease around the world
——————————————————————
This calls for a song. A hug-your-hominans song! Note Still the One Note 
 Homo naledi and the Underground Astronaut who found him - Lindsay Hunter
NoteWe’ve been together since way back when. Sometimes I never want to see you again.  

I want you to know, after all these years, you’re still the one I want whisperin in my ear.
You’re still the one — who can scratch my itch, still the one — and I wouldn’t switch. 
We’re still having fun, and you’re still the one. Note
—————————————————–

This optimistic evidence is now getting out to humans: Hans Rosling – Don’t trust The Media to understand the world, check facts & arguments yourself. Matt Ridley & Steven Pinker just won the Munk Debates arguing that humankind’s best days lie ahead.  And 5 data scientists become world famous for showing that facts can win over fear.
Hans Rosling - Do not trust The Media if you want to understand the world World is much better now and will continue - Ridley and Pinker win debate  Optimistic Scientists with data to prove it
We caring humans, are still too often tricked into destructive baseless beliefs by fear & righteous emotions from deep down in our ancient lion-in-the-grass African savannah brains, … as our world bounds into a fantastic 21stC future. But even this problem is being solved, with Homo sapiens (& school children :-)) more often using critical thinking to check evidence & arguments with the scientific method and logical reasoning.
Failure How Science Succeeds - Stuart Firestein City of the Future - Shinjuku, Tokyo with park Curiosity Selfie - Namib Dune - January 2016
These failures are our road to success as we humans move into Green green megacities, leaving wilderness blooming, and achieve mighty things, in reaching the stars.
Fantastic Future  Trend Watching Brady

Posted in Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Education, Energy, Greens, Health, Nuclear Power, Oceans, Optimism, Technology

The Sense of Scientific Style

Steven Pinker (p6): Today’s writers are infused with the spirit of scientific skepticism and the ethos of questioning authority. They rightly expect reasons for any advice foistered upon them. WOW! Mars, our next home. Below: Mars – sol 1197: (left) Gale meteorite crater wall; (centre) Namib sand dune slipface; (right) Mt Sharp central crater peak where the Curiosity Rover (stretched at bottom) is going in New Year 2016. Or, maybe safer not to wander back to planet “wildernesses”. Colonies around Mars’ moons Phobos & Deimos?
Mars - Gale Crater - (left) meteorite crater wall (centre) Namib sand dune slipface (right) Mt Sharp central crater peak - where the Cusiosity Rover (bottom - stretched) is going New Year 2016 Phobos Base Camp  PADME Mars Satellite  Phobos orbiting space colony
Steven Pinker (p29): Classic Style’s motive is disinterested truth. The writer, he just needs to present it, the reader is competent and can recogognize the truth when she sees it, as long as she is given an unobstructed view. Svalbard polar bears are “fat as pigs” & up 42%, even with their ice poor Barents Sea. Maybe dining on walrus? :-)  Walrus are booming too, back to maximum 1890s levels. However, the US Sea & Sky dept (NOAA) says too little sea ice is causing decreases in polar bears and walrus. Hmm …
Polar Bears on Svalbad - autumn 2015 - fat as pigs
Here we have contradictory Global Warming worriers saying: Bacon is better than lettuce & lettuce is better than bacon, as the world cools? And a massive cloud global cooling process was discovered before the Paris Climate Deal, any more unknowns? Then the overjoyed shouted: Paris Climate Success! But with no goals, controls nor money & all can opt out in 4 yrs before 2020 start. Then the namecalling began. Any scientific style here?
Organic Contradictions 1 - Lettuce better than Bacon  Organic Contradictions 2 - Bacon better than Lettuce
Are even some hard sciences needing more style? – Unscientific: Strings, Multiverse, Cosmic Inflation are not verifiable but they are worth doing anyway, say String theorists. How long to wait for an hypothesis to be tested? 1000yrs? Is String Theory, the Multiverse and the Anthropic Principle just Media popular: stopping funding for other good ideas?
Unscientific - Strings, Multiverse, Cosmic Inflation, Anthropic Principle - or not verifiable but worth doing anyway
University students are still righteously blocking campus free speech saying it’s offensive and sexual harrassment (WTF!) University profs lean heavily politically Left but claim no bias in their research nor teaching. University admin replace intelligence, knowledge & learning with student happiness. Online-distance courses boom. Now that makes sense.
Nano Sculptures Sense of Style - Steven Pinker
The sense of scientific style exudes from these 2015 nano-sculptures. Here astounding science and beautiful art mix. Evidence supports emotions, feelings are based on facts and all data is laid bare for drawing conclusions. So, from the miniscule to the Martian, lets have the style to be even more human … & dare mighty things in 2016.
Scientific Style Sense Seeking Brady

Posted in Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, Education, Energy, Extinction, Greens, Health, Ice, Nuclear Power, Oceans, Optimism, Political Climate, Temperature | Leave a comment

Prudently Preventing Prevention

Our vast world awaits. Leda 1852 a 330 million light year distant mid-void galaxy shines symmetrically like an untouched mid blue Pacific Ocean island jewel. Curiosity rover on rust red Mars reaches towering black Bagnold Dune #1. As Saturn’s Cassini probe deep dives through moon Enceladus’ organic bearing geyser plumes. What a wonder world!
Leda 1852 galaxy - the lonliest void galaxy
Bagnold Dunes on Mars       Enceladus Flyby - 28 Oct 2015
What’s up, down on Earth? Well, war deaths are down, as are hurricanes & global temps. Oil prices are also diving down as a (permanent?) Oil Glut floods markets as the Fracking Revolution takes hold, so the Greens are down too :-) However Nuclear Energy is taking off in China, with Western nuclear supporting voices rising. Perhaps prudently preventing prevention is a positive sign. Even space mining is being legalized. That’s definitely up!
Wars Deaths declining rapidly Oil Glut as Fracking Revolution takes over  Chinese Future Nuclear Map Space Mining legalizing
What else do we try to prevent but now seems useless or worse? Ban Lego for boys: Gender Equality ideology goes batsh*t crazy? Or just its natural next step? Bike helmet laws: feel-good & misguided & don’t reduce head injuries – bicycle lanes better. Robert Aronowitz in Risky Medicine exposes our excessive fear of medical uncertainty, such as with excessive HPV vaccines, men’s PSA scans & women’s mammograms: conflating risks with the disease eg. lowing life quality by excising cancers that might kill us in 400 years.
Lego banned for boys in the ideology of gender equality Bike Helmet Laws misguided Risky Medicine - Aronowitz 2015
Anything else getting better? Well, world optimism is gaining ground. Matt Ridley & Steven Pinker just won the Munk Debates arguing that humankind’s best days lie ahead.  And 5 data scientists become world famous for showing that facts can win over fear.
World is much better now and will continue - Ridley and Pinker win debate  Optimistic Scientists with data to prove it
Possibly Preventing Pessimism Brady

Posted in Astronomy, Brain, Greens, Nuclear Power, Optimism, Temperature

The Great Enrichment

Ooooo, we’re getting closer. Saturn’s moon Encleadus gets deep-dived by the Cassini spacecraft, over its north and south poles (49km), looking for organics from its oceans. Humans have just completed surveying the Solar System, now the colonization stage begins. Onward to Mars! Enriching our species with knowledge, as is the human’s niche.
Enceladus global ocean       Enceladus- north pole crater floors bulging from ice crust flowing over warmer core
Solar System survey completed - now the colonization stage begins
Enough of this exploration nonsense!;-)What’s happening with real people in Earth’s mud? Well, the world is getting richer: poverty drops to single digits (9.8%) down to 700 million, even with a growing population. Food Glut: record food harvests & low prices = feeding future billions (one?) on less land with less fertilizers. Lifespans worldwide are up. Great!
Food Glut with record low prices on less fertilizers Extreme Poverty lowest ever - 9.8% down to 700 million peopleFAO food index dropping means cheaper food for all Life expectancy at birth by country 1543-2011
How is the politicized science going? UNs Paris 21st “caringclimate meeting should be fun. The 18yr global temp pause(cooling?) continues, even with increasing CO2; Arctic ice is thickening and the deep oceans are still cold & alkaline. But watch the $1.5 trillion sing, like Ulysses’ sirens on the rocks. A bit of critical thinking wax might help, or maybe not :-)
Scientists fooling themselves - and how they can stop it Data hiding equal scientific misconduct
How about wayward scientists? Well, Nicole Janz is whipping them into shape: Hiding data = breaking professional standards = scientific misconduct. And no-raw-data-required Nature Journal is reluctantly joining inHumans are remarkably good at self-deception. But growing concern about reproducibility is driving many researchers to seek ways to fight their own worst instincts. As Feynman says: you [scientists] are the easiest to fool.
Boat Out - leaving glacial Lake Ekoln, Sweden -up the Fyris River, Uppsala for drydocking over winter - Sun 10 Oct 2015 By Steppe Desert and Ocean - Barry Cunliffe - Nov 2015 - humans migrating across Europe for the last 10000 year - not EU border friendly
The Great Enrichment (unplanned prosperity) continues apace, says Deirdre McCloskey, by individual humans specializing, innovating & freely networking, mostly despite the policies of Big Gov, Big Enviro, Big Business etc. So, its time to relax on these calm autumn days and marvel at our 10 000 BC humans spreading out over the mighty Eurasian continent, as we are now doing out into interplanetary space.
Enriching Brady

Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Brain, Climate, Health, Optimism, Political Climate, Recycling, Technology

Herding Humans

Magnificent Martian mountianscapes beckon (10 Sept 2015) with briny water in wet sand flowing downhill in warm near zero sunshine. However hype & fear overtook science as NASA exaggerates to get money for its future Phobos outpost and the Planetary Protection Office bans landings in life-likely spots from “filthy humans”: eco-doomers already on Mars? No mid-ocean alkaline hydrothermal vents there so, evidence-based science please!
Mars magnificent mountainscape
Pluto - mountains and plains and sky Phobos Outpost 2033
Wo! Pluto – sunset on 3.5km ice mountains by a frozen nitrogen sea in an orange methane misty sky. Back on Earth, we’re still battling the twin demons of science: fear & greed, with evidence & reason. First up: The Sahel desert is greening again, from more CO2, leading to increased plant water use efficiency. Also, duelling population projections – but they don’t mention their failed predictions & future fertility rebound evidence. Organic foods take another scientific beating – more about money than facts. Herded humans, again? And, an old favourite: logic & evidence contradictions in the “hottest year ever” meme. Oh well.
Sahel Greening more and more from CO2 increases Population projections - UN vs IIASA no mention of the low realities and future fertility rebound evidence Organic Foods - like a religious cult Global Warming now stopped for 18 years and 8 months
Getting more personal :-) : Hans Rosling – Don’t trust The Media to understand the world, check facts & arguments yourself. University trigger-warnings protect students offended by critical thinking. However academic resistance is beginning. Good & about time!
Hans Rosling - Do not trust The Media if you want to understand the world Protection from Critical Thinking reverts students to children
So lets try evolving away from being herded humans. If our new ancestor Homo naledi could care for their dead 2.5 million years ago then lets care even more for our living with skepticism, optimism and calcuated daring as we expand across the extensive reaches of space and speed up the evolution of innovations (new good ideas) in our minds.
Homo naledi (right) with (left) Lucy (Homo habilis) and Homo erectus The Evolution of Everything - Matt Ridley
Horrible-to-Herders Brady :-)

Posted in Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Droughts, Education, Health, Optimism, Political Climate, Temperature | Leave a comment

What Mad Pursuit

EU and US race to Jupiter’s moons to be 1st to find extraterrestrial life out in the Universe. Who wants to finish 2nd? Doing what humans do best, gathering knowledge, so we all win. Mars may have fossils but live life is best. From mid-Atlantic alkaline hydrothermal vents to ice protected Jovian oceans? As The Martian says: Lets science the sh*t out of this! :-)
Jupiter moon probe Juice from EU orbits Ganymede looking life in its ice covered oceans Mars Curiosity rover - 12 Aug 2015 - with layered ancient lake sediments in background
However, back here on Earth, some mad pursuit of emotion over reason continues: “Environmental threats have a habit of turning out less bad than feared … the remedies sometimes prove worse than the disease … the environmental movement has repeatedly denied people access to safer technologies and forced them to rely on dirtier, riskier or more harmful ones. It is adept at exploiting people’s suspicion of anything new. Indoor air pollution (cooking over wood fires indoors) is the world’s biggest cause of environmental death. It kills an estimated four million people every year. To argue that the increasingly small risk of dangerous climate change many decades hence is something they should be more worried about is positively obscene.” And Psychology is 60% wrong. Oh well.
Green Beauty broken by Green Scares Bioethics slows down or stops enormous benefits to humans due to fear of unknown effects Walrus rebounding and back historical levels in the Pacific Irradiated Food is scientifically best but emotionally taboo
Bioethics is seduced by fear too: “Biomedical research, then, promises vast increases in life, health, and flourishing. Just imagine how much happier you would be if a prematurely deceased loved one were alive, or a debilitated one were vigorous — and multiply that good by several billion, in perpetuity. Given this potential bonanza, the primary moral goal for today’s bioethics can be summarized in a single sentence. Get out of the way.”
However, the walrus seem to be happy :-) : “Pacific Walrus populations “increased from 50,000 to 100,000 animals in the late 1950s to more than 250,000 animals by 1985,” and they are believed to have now reached their maximum carrying capacity. Alarmists suggest the increasing use of land haul-outs is a sign of disaster, caused by the loss of sea ice. However all the evidence argues that as walrus populations increase, so does the use of land haul-outs. It is a sign of the walrus’ successful recovery. A beach packed with walruses is evidence of better conservation, not global warming doom.” Even the scare of irradiated food is now having the light of reason shone on it. Yum, goodbye bacteria poisoning.
Science is not broken it is just hard to do Humans enjoying the wonders of life
So, lets madly pursue reason, not be madly overcome by emotion: “The state of our science is strong, but it’s plagued by a universal problem: Science is hard — really f**king hard. If we’re going to rely on science as a means for reaching the truth — and it’s still the best tool we have — it’s important that we understand and respect just how difficult it is to get a rigorous result. Science is not a magic wand that turns everything it touches to truth. Instead, “science operates as a procedure of uncertainty reduction. The goal is to get less wrong over time.” The scientific method is the most rigorous path to knowledge, but it’s also messy and tough. Science deserves respect exactly because it is difficult.” So lets pursue knowledge that is hard, so all humans can enjoy the wonders of life on Earth …. and also those off it. :-)
Reason Pursuing  Brady

Posted in Arctic, Astronomy, Extinction, Greens, Health, Optimism, Political Climate

Aspirations Ascending

Pluto “hearts” us & huge moon Charon dazzles as New Horizons speeds by. It took 400 years for Earth’s continents to be discovered: from the 1420s with Henry the Navigator sailing down Africa’s coast to the 1820s with sealers landing on Antarctica. It took 50 years for space probes to image all the Solar System’s major bodies: from 1965 with Mariner 4 at Mars to 2015 with New Horizons at Pluto. What next? Crossing interstellar space by 2100?
Pluto Charon Nix and Hydra
Down on Earth stratovolcano Mt Fuji’s beauty beckons while I relax on volcanic mudstone creeping down it’s 3776m ash flanks. Meanwhile, across the PacificNYTs Oregon tsunami scare story finally gets $175m for reinforcing its schools (as in Japan) against the 41 times happened before earthquakes. Just 1/1000 of the USs $100b/yr spending on the never happened before (fact-poor?) Global Warming alarm. Are we humans getting smarter?
Mt Fuji summit, Japan - 1400 Tues 23 June 2015 - clouds clearing  Mt Fuji, Japan - 1200 23 June 2015 - Brady half way up on mudstone on volcanic scree slope    Benioff Zones - West Pacific  Japanese Godzilla statue in Shinjuku, Tokyo - like Media science scare stories ... Brady not scared
Well, you judge: UK Weather Office‘s “Hottest July ever!” is really just heatsink Heathrow airport’s temperature box blasted by a passing 747 jet exhaust. Lancet journal plays politics with bees, eliminating 200 000 animal species, in a computer model scare paper. Polar Bears thrive with expanding Artic sea ice but “scientists” want $64m to save them. WWF supports evicting 22000 tribal people in India (some living with tigers for 20000 years) from new Tiger Tourist Reserves. That’s OK? Caring Green’s must be good. Right?
Heathrow 1 July 2015- yellow circle is weather box & blue line is 747 jet exhaust aimed at weather box  Bees played by Politics again Artic Sea Ice at 29 July 2015 WWF critical - Panda Leaks - documenting the Dark Side of this environmental organisation
Trying to predict our future with claims of certainty disappoints too often –  ultimately we must accept that uncertainty will always be part of what it is to be human. When we deny ourselves the challenge of thinking critically, evaluating situations and making our own decisions, we are heading towards a future where Homo sapiens will lack the cognitive ability to think for itself.  Always being skeptical of Media Science scare stories is a worthy aspiration. As Sarah shows: environmental journalists … profess belief in objectivity even as they reject or redefine it … have radically redefined the component of objectivity known as “balance.” – by promoting political groups, not evaluating evidence.
Life Ascending by Nick Lane (2010)     DNA - now with 6 bases - GCAT plus P and Z      Icarus Interstellar space probe design to nearest stars
So, lets try out interstellar journeys and genome journeys too. Lets voyage out past the Kuiper Belt to new stars; lets explore the possibilities of 6-base DNA & lets govern our gullibilities for silly science scare stories. Lets aspire and thrive. Lets ascend to our future by reaching out for all those stars. Who knows what wonders we’ll acquire.
Aspiring Ascender Brady

Posted in Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, Education, Energy, Geology, Health, Nuclear Power, Temperature