Doing like we do, we are on the way up. Our International Space Station is permanently crewed (now with 2 women & 4 men). The Orion spacecraft lifts off on 4 Dec for trips to the Moon, Mars & asteroids. The Rosetta space probe orbits Comet 67P & its Philae lander just made a bumpy touchdown. Planets beckon and The Galaxy awaits.
Down on Earth, chocolate is plentiful, and that is always good. World Poor are getting richer and are now able to savour the dark brown delights of cacao. As usual the alarmists spin this good news as the coming Chocolypse (to support UN-Obama climate action?). Climate continues cooling, for 20 years now (20 to go?) Beaufort polar bears are booming & the Black Footed Ferret is back from being extinct for 20 years. Is there a pattern here? “Group failures often have disastrous consequences—not merely for businesses, nonprofits, and governments, but for all those affected by them.” Enviros, Climatists, Energy Doomers & Medical Malpracticers … can they be better?
Yes indeed! Making Dumb Groups Smarter authors Sunstein & Hastie moan how groups: amplify errors; follow the statements & actions of those who spoke/acted first; take up extreme positions; don’t take into account critical information that only one or a few people have. What to do? : Silence the loud leader; “Prime” critical thinking tasks; reward group success not individuals; appoint devil’s advocates & “red teams” to find mistakes and exploit vunerabilities in the group’s thinking. Now, that should be easy.
Ambition (ESAs Rosetta space probe PR video) explains the human quest for ever more knowledge and the realizing of possibilities “We fall, we pick ouselves up again and we adapt”. So, lets get up & do it, again.
Eye opsins and their photoreceptors, the seeing sites in animals, are being tweeked for more colour vision. Is a colour blindness cure for humans next? Can we also enrich human vision with gene therapy of a fourth cone opsin in the violet giving us 100x more colours? “What beauty might we experience in art …?”
Other pulse-of-the-world indicators continuously get better too. “The number of natural disasters in the past year was the lowest for ten years, not more.” The International Red Cross reports: “Accordingly, last year 337 natural disasters were recorded, almost half of the peak level 2005. The death toll stood at 22,452, well below the average for the decade of 97,954 victims.” Modern technology rocks!
And …”Based on the latest forecasts for production and utilization, world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2015 would surge to 627.5 million tonnes, up 8.3 % from an already large volume at the start of the season and its highest level in 15 years.”
Even biomedical research is waking up from its 80% wrong & 85% $s wasted nightmare.
However, our facts & costs-benefits challenged Apocalyptic humans seemingly still can’t see the science. Species extinction alarmists are getting worried they are being found out. “There have certainly been some enormous exaggerations,” said Richard Ladle, a Brazil-based conservation scientist who studies extinction. There’s at least one problem with these predictions: Where are the bodies? Actual documented extinctions are vanishingly rare.” Their “damn the data, we have an agenda” thinking, makes an increasingly skeptical public dump them in with other enviro-fanatics. Also, another inconvenience: Global Warming’s presumed man-made “missing heat” is still … missing. The now 18+ year stop (or “pause”/”haitus”, but never: drop/cooling) in world temperatures was expected to be hiding heat in the deep oceans, but the data say no (black dots=below 2km). Are our misty eyed alarmists falling in“to dungeons deep and caverns old“?
Prof Brown at Duke Uni sums it up best – “Science isn’t a search for Truth. It is a search for that which it is best to believe, given the evidence, so far.” And as Pascal Bruckner says: “We need trailblazers and stimulators, not killjoys disguised as prophets. We need new frontiers in order to cross them, not new prisons where we can stagnate… Every new invention must strike the heart of human desire, elicit astonishment, and allow people to embark upon an unprecedented voyage… We have to count on the genius of the human race, which is capable of overcoming its fears in order to improvise new solutions.” Clearly said & seen scientific sentiments indeed!
Finally, Interstellar. After the obligatory Hollywood apocalypse preaching comes a visual black hole beauty feast, informed by science’s living legend Gravitation expert Kip Thorne. And it shows! “The visualization of the black hole environment, including the accretion disks and gravitational lensing, … will be based on an accurate calculation rooted in Einstein’s general relativity…. it should be the most accurate depiction of a black hole ever.” WOW … what a view, too!
Sightseeing seeing sites Brady
Our local Universe just expanded. The Lanniakea supercluster of galaxies – 520 million light years across and our Milky Way galaxy just a blue dot, but …WOW, what a view!
Let’s get back to Earth & not forget our save-the-worlders’ own moving tipping points too. Future temps are now decreasing; Antarctic ice is again at record highs; Arctic ice is increasing & Ozone is waltzing naturally. “Half global wildlife lost” becomes: computer Living-Planet-Index modelled animals, undetected by science, guessed in possible decline. Hmm … Now, they are, how shall we say, … inconvenient truths
Seems maybe they need to value knowledge more. Says Steven Pinker eloquently – “they should appreciate that objective knowledge is a precious commodity, and know how to distinguish vetted fact from superstition, rumor, and unexamined conventional wisdom. They should know how to reason logically and statistically, avoiding the fallacies and biases to which the untutored human mind is vulnerable. They should think causally rather than magically, and know what it takes to distinguish causation from correlation and coincidence. They should be acutely aware of human fallibility, most notably their own, and appreciate that people who disagree with them are not stupid or evil. Accordingly, they should appreciate the value of trying to change minds by persuasion rather than intimidation or demagoguery.”
And as Bourgeoise Dignity argues in “an enormously optimistic telling … about just how lucky we are … we are rich—really rich—compared to our ancestors of only a short time ago. What was different after 1800, and with unstoppable force after 1900, was a novel and immense and sustained, almost lunatic, regime of innovation, finally breaking the Malthusian curse“. And as Steven Johnson writes of our amazing present – “the more we build up vast repositories of scientific and technological understanding, the more we conceal them”. … your ability to tell the time today depends on somebody understanding how electrons circulate within cesium atoms; the knowledge of how to send signals to satellites; the ability to trigger steady vibrations in blocks of silicon dioxide; and much more. None of which you need to know as you glance at your watch or smartphone. Disappearing limitations. Good!
Boundary Bender Brady
Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Education, Extinction, Greens, Optimism, Temperature
Rosetta space probe now pioneer orbiting Comet 67P selects landing sites for a 11 Nov touchdown. Another small step to asteroid mining then … human space colonies?
Even down on Earth an abundance of meteoric betterments are flowing -“Compared with any time in the past half century, the world as a whole is today wealthier, healthier, happier, cleverer, cleaner, kinder, freer, safer, more peaceful and more equal.”
Not to mention, more food available – “The new harvest in 2014-15 is expected to be above average for the second year in a row and reach 303 million tonnes ” … and better fed too – “The corresponding [undernourished] world decrease … is also 17% – from 1.015 billion in 1990-2 to 842 million in 2011-2013. ” However we in the West are still following 40 year old health & nutrition mistakes. In Sweden, “100s of” 9th Grade Geography & Biology alarmist test-makers can’t even answer their own questions. Oh well.
Our present Great Enrichment came from innovation, says Deirdre McCloskey – “millions more have gas heating, cars, smallpox vaccinations, indoor plumbing, cheap travel, rights for women, lower child mortality, adequate nutrition, taller bodies, doubled life expectancy, schooling for their kids, newspapers, a vote, a shot at university and respect.” Now that’s astronomical progress!
Comet Cornucopian Brady
Finding freedom across the Aegean, at the 4thC BC architypal Lindos Acropolis, with the exquisite Aphrodite Bathing & Zorba dancing, to the joy of life. But, back down to Earth
Ooowee … we are getting better. Kepler-93b: 300 light years away, 3.8 super-Earth size, 1/6 Mercury distance, around a 90% Sun-like star, 760°C, 3 independent data sources (Keck, Spitzer & Kepler) → 1.481 Earth radius ± … wait for it … 119 km – WOW!
Now, lets observe the accuracy of our Sol-1d pseudo-scientivists. The Plastics-in-Oceans scare is now 1000x less panicky. Was it ever a problem? EU recycling laws shown wasting 45mins/house/week of “slave” time, money & energy. The Radon scare is found, again, “not statistically significant” in 57 000 Danes. The fat, cheese & sugar scarers have now apologised: “It is also time to apologise to my family for all the useless advice I’ve been giving them“. Ignore Govt health advice to get healthy? UK alarmist Guardian newspaper complains alarmist scientists, politicians & journalists are using fear & panic to get money, fame & power. Pot meet kettle. And the world cools, now for 17 yrs & 10 mths.
So, fear not, the democratization of science by the internet continues apace. Scientists are challenged for evidence and logic. The school principles of “Good Education, and Bad” are being rediscovered (even in Sweden) – knowledgeable teachers, hard working students, helping parents & quiet classrooms, supported by long-sighted laws. Academic Freedom (absent of politics, ideology & revolution) is defended – knowledge sought for its own sake. The life-of-the-mind, the precious human quality of searching for the truth (its immediate pleasure from responsible & rigorous performance) is again enlightening our world. Good!
So, time to ponder the paleoproterozoic, to imagine Banded Iron Formations settling on microcontintents accreting via volcanic island arcs onto Archean cratons 2 billion years ago. Time to touch convergent oceanic crust created green pyroxene & pink pegmatite crystals. Time to gaze & wonder out across the ice sheet smoothed shores of a sunny Eastern Sea.
Life of the Mind enjoying Brady
Posted in Astronomy, Books, Climate, Education, Extinction, Geology, Health, Music, Optimism, Political Climate, Recycling, Sun
Time to dream of distant shores, time to let imagination soar.
Time to search out worlds afar, time to reach out for the stars.
Hubble Ultra Deep Field 2014, now in infrared+UV+light. 10 000 galaxies, 1mm x 1mm, 1/13 millionth of the sky, 13.4 billion years deep. Gaze & wonder. WOW!
Time to dance to the joys of life, time to sail into wide blue horizons. Time to leave our worried save-the-world warriors behind. And boy, for good reasons too! Matt Ridley cogently shows how even the warmist UN-WWF Climate Panel report (IPCC 2013) predicts no Green dangers in 2100. Go figure. Bees are feelin’ fine & never better, but Enviros banned safe neonics for €17 billion in bee harming chemicals. Serial exaggerations of extinction rates plague biologist Pimm’s latest 1000x faster study, based again on broken model assumptions, but loved by the world’s Media. Renewable energy (wind & solar) has stagnated for the last 20 years, countryside spoiled & $billions wasted. Oh well.
India says $300m/yr Greenpeace is against its public good & freezes all its funds. In Russia, Greenpeace’s ship still seized. NATO says EU Greens are Gazprom-Putin paid to stop cheap European gas energy. EUs Greenpeace just lost €4 million by currency gambling up to €100 million in donations. Dare somebody tell their footsoldiers ? Even Europa (Jupiter’s moon) needs some skepticism. Is it blooming with oceans of life, as is all the Media rage now? Or, just dilute mineral water with no energy source from its 10km thick ice shell or its dead rocky core? & … “plumes” from 12 politicised 2012 pixels?
Scientific skepticism is the rigorous application of science and reason to test the validity of any and all claims; where all facts in science are provisional and subject to challenge; & has a reliance on reason, critical thinking, and a desire for verifiable testable evidence. Finally & importantly: skepticism values method over any particular conclusion.
Soooo … Time to ponder the Precambrian. Time to explore life in the Eemian, on today’s Earth, under Europa & out into our Universe. Time to dream on shores afar. Time to enjoy life in the European summer sun & time to live the life of cake mate Life & Cake Dreaming Brady
Posted in Astronomy, Climate, CO2, Education, Energy, Extinction, Greens, Ice, Oceans, Optimism, Political Climate
Earth goes Live for the next 18 months, cycling between 4 HD cameras (1 forward, 1 amidships & 2 aft) showing our stunningly beautiful planet rolling beneath. So, lets gaze down on the maleficent Media “science”, during this merry, merry month of May
Climate alarmism collapses again. Antarctic ice sheets “now unstoppable inevitable collapse” may really happen in 1000s of years … or maybe longer. World respected Swedish climate scientist is ostracised by activist climatologists for daring to advise a skeptic group & insist that models be based on observations. Even warmists are shocked. But dead silence about him here, in our close-the-ranks Swedish Media. Oh well. IUCN Polar Bear officials/activists admit they didn’t count half the Arctic. Fool me twice …
Tornado & twister devastating damages are decreasing. Global greenery grows by 11% over the last 30 years. Droughts are declining too. 44 & now 23 climate models “do not agree with reality”. Opportunistic Scaremongering also plagues the wind turbine, anti-fracking. health and animal rights movements. Feel-good FairTrade is found to keep poor tea & coffee farmers poor & rich caring kids rich. Fooled ourselves again?
Also in the spotlight this month: Activist Scientists – “the one phenomenon that seems to have escaped the notice of scientists, environmentalists and the media alike is that, perhaps above all, climate change is making us stupid.”; Academics – “there is but one proper role for the academe in society: to advance bodies of knowledge and to equip students for doing the same. When teachers offer themselves as moralists, political activists, or agents of social change rather than as credentialed experts in a particular subject and the methods used to analyze it, they abdicate their true purpose.” ; and Teachers – “So, gentle readers of this blog, do you think eco-activism should be given a free rein within schools? Do you think you should participate in raising fears, followed by giving detailed guidance on how your pupils should live, as well as on what they should think? Do you think it is part of your job to burden your pupils with ‘saving the planet’ and putting pressure on their parents? Says Fish: “Do your own job, not somebody elses.”
So, lets check up on our polycoloured politicos, Enviros, Big Businesses & ourselves. See that we are not conned by noble-cause corruption, tricked by trendy groupthink &/or fooled into feel-good quick n’ simple fixes. Let’s not give away our time & money, votes, caring & happiness undeservedly. No sweeping under uncomfortable scientific facts or giving free passes to argumental fallacies of logic. Teaching not preaching, learning not believing. Our world, our planet: beautiful, rare & lucky. Not to be to be gambled away to fear & fashion but nurtured with science & reason. Enriched & expanded, outwards & upwards .. and so making our world even better & bigger … & even more wonderous.
Lucky Earth Living Brady
Posted in Antarctic, Astronomy, Books, Climate, CO2, Droughts, Education, Energy, Geology, Glaciers, Greens, Health, Ice, Oceans, Optimism, Political Climate